アジア経済発展論研究会（経済学研究科、東南アジア研究所、アジア研究教育ユニット）

■2020年度第1回 研究会

日時: 2020年6月4日（木） 16:30-17:45
場所: Zoomによるウェブセミナー

言語: 日本語

報告者: 三浦憲 氏（京都大学大学院農学研究科生物資源経済学専攻） https://kenmiura.com/
報告論題: News from the Sky: An Empirical Test of Forward-Looking Behavior among Zambian Farmers

要旨:
This study derives a novel and unique prediction of consumption responses to new information by building on a buffer stock saving model with borrowing constraints. While the consumption responses of asset-poor and asset-rich households are close to zero or modest, the middle asset group reacts to advance information the most. This study tests this hump-shaped relationship with asset stock levels with weekly household data combined with daily plot-level rainfall records from rural Zambia. The empirical analysis first confirms that rainfall works as a good predictor of future harvests in the sample villages. Then, the regression results show that weekly household consumption responds to rainfall in certain months, which has sufficient predictive power for future maize harvests. Furthermore, the response is heterogeneous according to the level of grain inventories, which is consistent with the proposed model. Overall, this study provides empirical evidence that while even constrained households can change their consumption schedules before income shocks actually happen by adjusting their buffer stocks, welfare gains from advance information depend greatly on the available asset levels.

キーワード: Consumption, Buffer stock model, Announcement effect, Grain stock, Africa

幹事: 町北朋洋、三重野文晴（以上、東南アジア地域研究研究所）、矢野剛、高野久紀（以上、経済学研究科）

その他: 参加希望の方は当日の朝までに町北朋洋（machi[at]cseas.kyoto-u.ac.jp）にご連絡いただけますよう、お願い申し上げます。