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This research topic is a study to understand important role of giant business group in contemporary Thai political economy. I explored Big Four Telecoms such as TelecomAsia, TT&T- Jusmin International, UCOM and SHIN are case for understand how they involved and in case of SHIN how they enter politics. I found that both economic crisis and new constitution in 1997 gave a significant chance to specifically SHIN entering the central of power as government. Later on, under Thaksin preministership, he established new political power with his new political economy alliances-big business groups such as another telecom groups, Banking, real estate, entertainment and mass media groups. While he also promoted his class mate both in Armed Forces Academy preparatory and police cadet school as top ranks in army, navy, air force and police for political purposes.

Ironically, Thaksin is a pioneer of Populism in Thailand. He also is the first prime minister since the first constitution for people launched in 1997. But his new political and economic establishments and his political goals had been proved as dangerous for democratization. How the ironic story happen ?

I have been doing fieldwork in and around Thongmakhsan since the summer of 1977 when another graduate student and I joined Paul Durrenberger, my supervisor, and his wife in the village. In this lecture, I trace two parallel histories: that of Thongmakhsan and my relationship with it. There have been many changes in Thongmakhsan since 1977: the number of households have increased from 42 to around 90; people no longer make rice swiddens (slash and burn fields); garlic has become a major crop; the village school closed but some Thongmakhsan children go to college; water buffalos have been replaced by walking tractors; there is electricity; and a new generation is in the process of replacing the old one. Similarly, my relationship with the village and the villagers have changed through time: I am no longer a stranger; village life is not “new” to me anymore; I used to know everyone, now because of the influx of refugees from the Shan state, I no longer do; on every trip, I learn more and more about a smaller section of the community; people I have been close to have died; I am a “grandmother,”and have sons and grandchildren; people who were children when I was first there in 1977 now have children; I thought I understood the community and my place in it but am now less sure of both my understanding and my place in Thongmakhsan. I explore both of these intertwined histories, tracing these connections to the local village, provincial, and international contexts. In conclusion I discuss the contributions that long term fieldwork makes for anthropology and the affects this has on the anthropologist.

この会に呼んでいただけた契機となったであろう「タイにおける森林伐採が降水変化に与える影響」に関して、まず発表を行ないたいと思う。具体的には、タイではこの数十年の間、土地利用の変化が著しいが、その影響が９月という特殊な季節にのみ降水の減少として現れていることを、領域気候モデルによる数値シミュレーションと観測降水量の解析を組み合わせることによって”発見”し、東南アジアモンスーンにおける9月の特殊性と結びつけたものである。

実はこの研究は、数年前に論文としてまとめたあと停止している（させている）。そこで続いて、どうしてその研究を停止させ現在は違う道を進むことを選択しているか、について述べたい。具体的には、「土地利用の変化が降水や気候の変動に与える影響」に関する現在の研究の、特に数値モデル的研究の問題点を述べ、将来の新たなブレイクスルーへと至る道についての最近の世界の動向や私見を述べたい。その一部として、東南アジアは年々の降水の変動が大きく、その社会へのインパクトも大きいわけだが、地表面状態が降水予測に与える影響についての議論も、土地利用変化の与える影響研究との議論に関連させて述べたいと思う。最後に、地球研で我々が進めつつあるタイでの水紛争の話題にも触れたい。